The Economist: The death toll of Europe’s harsh winter is more than the war in Ukraine.
More people will die in Europe this winter due to “energy shortages” than died on the battlefield in the war in Ukraine.
The Economist modeled the impact of a sharp increase in electricity prices in Europe on deaths during the winter and concluded that with current energy costs, if a typical winter were to come, it would probably lead to 147,000 deaths.
In case of severe winter, this number can reach 185 thousand tons. But even if the winter is mild, this number will still be 79 thousand people.
This publication has estimated the casualties on the battlefield in the war in Ukraine to be around 60,000 people, which for Russia and Ukraine each exceeds 30,000 people.
Economist’s statistical model includes all EU countries, including the UK, Norway and Switzerland.
As a result of increasing Western sanctions, the price of gas and electricity for residential houses in Europe has increased significantly. Before the war, Russia supplied 40-50% of the European Union’s natural gas.
This winter, temperatures are not expected to be as high as in recent decades. It is also expected that the incidence of influenza will be normal.
This model showed that if the temperature is average, a 10% increase in electricity prices is associated with a 0.6% increase in mortality.
The model showed that Italy, which has an older population and high electricity prices, will suffer the most losses.
It also found that Estonia and Finland will suffer a large number of additional deaths this winter.
England and France will be better off with a price cap, and in Austria, which has a very generous price cap, winter deaths are expected to drop.
