From competition to political bipolarity; What is the future of the European Union?
: The beginning of the war in Ukraine, the freedom of action in extreme right-wing currents and the energy crisis and inflation are among the influencing factors in the weakening of the bond between the members of the European Union. So that the Stratfor think tank in the United States has predicted the collapse of the union in a 10-year process in its scientific report; In a part of this report, it is stated that the European Union has entered into a crisis and this crisis is still intensifying, and Europe in this situation cannot return to the era of its unity, if both countries have unity, it will be in specific and limited areas.
Although the mentioned factors could be the beginning of the end of the European Union in the not too distant future, political competition and differences of opinion among the member states of the European Union can also provide a bipolar platform within the Union. In fact, the most important reason for breaking ties in this international institution is related to the political competition in the European Union, where the main players of this competition are Germany and France. Because both countries are interested in leadership in the European Union, which is especially evident after the departure of the former German chancellor, Angela Merkel. Of course, the history of differences between Berlin and Paris goes back 60 years ago, when the Elysée Treaty in 1963 was a document to end the long wars between the two countries and a turning point between Germany and France to start cooperation instead of conflict. But now the differences between France and Berlin, as the two leading governments in the European Union, have also faced obstacles in the process of activity and influence of this union.
The reasons for the differences between the two countries can be examined in four areas, the first reason being the change in Berlin’s security policies; At the beginning of the Ukraine war, the Berlin authorities made statements regarding the development of their military activities to maintain the security of the country and Europe, which was also welcomed by Paris. But the disregard of these officials to the joint German-French arms production projects and the purchase of F-35 fighter jets from the United States of America created the basis of mistrust between the two countries. Because France has always been trying to make the European Union independent of the United States, it has wanted to limit the development of military relations between the EU member states and Washington. On the other hand, the creation of a 100 billion euro fund by the federal government for defense costs has caused the Paris authorities to worry that this event could change the balance of military power in Europe against France.
Another issue that has caused tension between the two countries is Germany’s approach to China; From France’s point of view, the German government does not see China as its rival or enemy, but as its business partner and is expanding its relations. For example, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz’s visit to China and this politician’s emphasis on the development of economic relations with Beijing was not a pleasant event for France because France interprets Germany’s close economic relations with China against European security.
The third reason for these conflicts is related to the lack of consensus in the energy policy of the two countries; One of the consequences of the Ukraine war for the European Union was the energy crisis. Even though Germany is most dependent on Russian oil and gas and by cutting a large part of these dependencies, like many European countries, it was in an energy supply crisis, but still it did not agree to the plan to reduce the price of energy carriers and set a valuation ceiling. . This issue led to the criticism of French President Emmanuel Macron.
Germany’s tendency towards Eastern Europe is also the fourth issue that fueled the differences between Germany and France; During his visit to Prague in August 2022, German Chancellor Schultz promised permanent aid to Ukraine and the continuation of common defense policies among the member states of the Union. Although these words were welcomed by Europe, they also caused concern in the Paris think tank. Because the Eastern European countries were the main focus of Schultz’s speech and this chancellor did not mention the relations and partnership between Germany and France and their joint defense projects such as the production of fighters and tanks of the new generation, which is considered as Germany’s desire towards Eastern and Northern Europe. will be evaluated.
Of course, the soft tensions that exist between the two countries cannot be limited to differences of opinion and differences in the interests of the two countries; Moreover, strategic and geopolitical differences are also ongoing between the two countries; Although Berlin and Paris are two important powers in the European Union, both countries have been focusing on different goals for a long time; France’s foreign policy is, on the one hand, to prevent American domination over Europe and to balance the political-military power of the Union, and on the other hand, to try to control the regrowth of the Federal Republic of Germany and its influence in Europe. But Germany’s strategic goal after World War II has been to realize its independence and limited sovereignty in foreign policy and then guarantee its national unity.
Result
As mentioned, Germany and France are two leading and important countries in the European Union, each of which competes for the leadership of the Union, resulting in political differences. For this reason, although the mere deepening of these differences will not cause the collapse of the Union, it will provide the basis for the emergence of bipolarity and, as a result, the weakening of the bond in the European Union. In short, France is trying to be Europe in terms of independent strategy, self-sufficient military, and influential political institution in the world. Of course, Germany has no problem with this goal of France, but France’s behavior as a leading state in the union is not an acceptable approach for Germany.
