There are events going on in Lebanon, and there are positions and statements and movements that reflect the very clear positions of the main actors, which, of course, all depend on the equations of power that may have prevented the fulfillment of many demands and also prevented the deadlock today. In contrast, there is a fundamental change to overthrow the existing system. The statement made by the National Free Movement, headed by Gibran Basil, yesterday, in which it explicitly stated the positions it had previously repeated in various forms, can be defined in the same style and context.
The National Free Movement stressed in its statement: It does not accept entrusting the administration of the country to a political group, which was previously responsible for the current collapse and the cause of the crisis between itself and other government elements, especially Speaker Nabih Berri.
But this time, Basil, directly and without considering any arguments or statements for or against, directly addressed his greatest ally, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, and asked him to intervene to resolve the issue.
Basil’s request reflects in the first place that he is convinced that there is no strong trust between him and the mediator, as his first supporter, but it also implies that it is a direct message to Hezbollah that it is taking a stand. Or take a step that breaks the existing deadlock.
Certainly, Basil, given his long experience, is well aware that Hezbollah is not engaged in war with other parties, nor does he believe that the time is right to enter into this battle with different tools and goals. This does not mean that Hezbollah does not enter into any confrontation at all, but it differs from Basil and Basbari. According to Hezbollah, Lebanon is on the verge of great changes. Were it not for these considerations, Hezbollah would certainly have mobilized demonstrators today against the government as well as the regime.
Basil also knows that Hezbollah will never have a direct confrontation with the speaker of parliament. The circumstances and reasons that prevented him from disagreeing with Barry are still in place. If we relate this to Hezbollah’s grand calculations, which are in fact linked to the interests of the resistance, we will well understand that the challenges facing the resistance today, inside and outside the country, require all the means that create tension. Be closed.
Basil also knows that Hezbollah does not oppose the appointment of Saad al-Hariri to form a new government. Basil also knows that even if Hezbollah did not nominate al-Hariri as prime minister, it strongly supports him in this mission. In all the contacts that have taken place since al-Hariri took office, Hezbollah has always been in a position to speak with al-Hariri as the definitive prime minister of the government. Although the caretaker Prime Minister himself fears that the Saudis and Americans will be outraged by his relationship with Hezbollah, he has made it clear in private that Hezbollah and the Amol Party, his two main allies, are his most important allies at the moment. He had a different position from today, Nabih Berri did not strongly support him. In addition, Al-Hariri, in his last meetings with Nabih Berri, told him directly: “Sayyid Hassan is with you as I am with you!”
However, Basil throws the fireball into Nasrallah’s arms. Is he doing this to compliment Hezbollah or to shirk responsibility for the crisis of forming a government? This is definitely not the case. There is little to be said about Basil’s concerns and efforts to express how he interacts with Hezbollah. Many may not know that Basil is the most familiar with the party and its way of thinking. In addition, he is fully aware of the party’s self-confidence and knows that the party will defend him and President Michel Aoun. He has learned from experience that it is not possible to extort money from the party and force it to do what it does not want to do. So why turn to it now?
He turned to Hezbollah because the crisis is approaching the stage of the big bang, which will go beyond the current collapse. According to Walid Jumblatt, the explosion means a loss of control and a plan of action to resolve it. Because everyone put every option they had on the table and no hidden issues remained and this has been revealed:
Is there an opportunity to change the rules of internal conflict that would fundamentally change the current mechanisms, whether in terms of forming a government or setting its agenda?
What Basil asked Nasrallah is a question that he wants to answer. The basis of this request is also based on the fact that he realized that what is called “initiative” is in fact nothing but a cover-up in order to fulfill Al-Hariri’s own demands. These demands are for a strong pact led by the Speaker of the House of Representatives and include Al-Hariri, Jumblatt, Suleiman Faranjieh, and all the religious factions of the party forces, which includes the church with both Maronite and Orthodox factions. Even the Lebanese Forces Party is not outside the pact as long as it has the mission of extending the ruling regime by changing the identities of some of the actors and their names.
In return for this competence, one can understand Basil’s message to Nasrallah and realize that he can do nothing more than throwing the ball on Hezbollah ground. Any thought that he should make concessions and accept the terms of the treaty of sovereignty constitutes his invitation to political suicide, and this suicide is not in the interest of anyone but the members of this rotten system. Even if Basil had been more moderate in the face of the challenges since Aoun came to power, he would not have been so driven away if he had not taken two unpleasant actions in the eyes of all elements of the ruling class:
First: strengthening the alliance with the resistance and defending its weapons and its interaction with the regional forces that stand by the resistance.
Second, his call for new government laws that eradicate the deep-rooted looting that has existed in the country for decades and that, because of the civil war, still exists and only its causes change.
Compensation for Basil is not a saint, but even if it has no place in the hearts of many people in this country, it is at least a voice that resonates in the minds. The new point is that Hezbollah must pray for the invention of a formula that maintains relations in order to reach a settlement and prevent a major explosion.
