What has caused a 180-degree change in Mohammad Ibn Salman’s position towards Iran? One factor is more important than the others: growing signs that the United States is seriously considering shifting its focus from the Middle East. What the United States is not doing here is important: to continue to reassure its security partners, as they have in the past, that they will have unconditional support from Washington for any reckless behavior.
Washington’s withdrawal from the Middle East has forced regional powers to pursue their diplomatic capacity. Contrary to the pessimistic predictions of the structure of US foreign policy, with the beginning of the process of US military withdrawal from the region, not only there was no chaos, but also regional diplomacy was activated. According to the Amvaj news site, at least five meetings have been held between Iran and the countries of the region since January, in which, in addition to Saudi Arabia, representatives from the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt also participated.
The talks, which focused on the Yemeni war, also addressed the situation in Syria and Lebanon. Senior security officials from the two countries took part in the talks, including a meeting between Ismail Qaani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, and Khalid al-Hamidan, head of Saudi intelligence.
Of course, there is still the possibility of failure of these talks to bridge the gap between Iran and its Arab enemies, but several factors show that these talks are the necessary basis for changing the sphere of Saudi relations with Iran and beyond the general security situation in the region. The fact that these talks are being held with the participation of several regional powers shows that it is more like a much-needed regional dialogue than a bilateral dialogue to defuse tensions.
The Middle East is strangely non-institutional, meaning it lacks a regional or community-based organization that can key and organize a multilateral dialogue to reduce tensions and provide options for calming and managing distrust.
The second factor of optimism is that these embryonic dialogues were apparently initiated and directed by the regional powers on their own initiative, that is, they were not imposed on them by the major powers outside the region and are not under their control. Regional leadership and stewardship of this process is a fundamental condition for its success and continuity. Of course, this does not mean that the United States had not any role in this process, which it certainly did.
Biden’s approach so far sends an unequivocal message to regional powers: the Middle East is a priority for the Biden administration as it can find ways to reduce its presence there … that is, suddenly, diplomacy is the preferred option for America’s security partners in the Middle East.
The Trump administration also killed the Iran-Saudi dialogue by assassinating General Qassem Soleimani. His government had committed itself to confront Iran, and the Saudis adapted to this fact: rejecting any diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
So the lesson for Washington is clear: If the United States takes a step back militarily, its regional partners will be encouraged to take a step forward diplomatically.
