Suspicion of Israeli involvement
What can be deduced from the recent fires in Iran
With the end of the fifth round of talks between Iran and the P5 + 1 countries in Vienna, it seems that much progress has been made in the outcome of the talks and some details that are required for the sixth round of talks, especially on Iran’s serious intentions towards nuclear weapons. It agrees as an opportunity to breathe.
The sixth round coincided with a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors to review two reports that underscored the lack of information explaining the effects of enriched uranium in three Iranian centers.
Given the non-nuclear factors in the talks that do not take place in Vienna, but in the escalation of tensions with Gaza and against targets inside Iran that indicate the escalation of tension by Israel to drag Iran to war to end the talks. The most significant of these attacks was the attack on the Natanz facility in April, at the same time as the start of the Vienna talks.
Analyzes from Moscow suggest that Israel has been involved in recent events, such as the burning of Iran’s largest ship in June and its sinking off the coast of Jask port. So that Russian writer Artimi Sharabov in an article entitled “Sabotage operation against Iran, how long will Tehran’s patience last?” He linked the burning of an Iranian ship and the fire at the Tehran oil refinery to Netanyahu’s extensive efforts for political gain.
If we add the shooting down of the Iranian F-5 fighter to these strikes, we get a broader picture of Iran’s military capabilities and the extent to which it has suffered from sanctions decades ago. Iran shows a picture of its military power for domestic consumption, as well as a picture of participating in deterring foreign attacks, which has not been achieved since the assassination of nuclear scientist Fakhrizadeh until the recent attacks.
Iran, which has made progress in the construction of drones, missiles and nuclear weapons, we see a great weakness in the military aircraft and air defense system and a decline in the naval sector at the level of battle management, and its equipment is old and worn out. Iran, for example, took over the ship that sank a few days ago in 1984.
As for Iran’s military aircraft, it is enough to look at the events that have taken place in recent years; In 2016, four planes crashed and its pilots were killed immediately. Hence, we understand the importance of supporting arms such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and al-Hashd al-Shabi, so that these arms can achieve achievements that cannot be achieved directly by the Iranian army and Revolutionary Guards, such as this battle. In the land of others, it is like smoke that covers the weakness of Iran in the event of a war in its geography.
If this Israeli strategy continues after Netanyahu, despite the patience that Iran has shown in enduring the pain caused by it, and despite the important factor, namely the course of American action in managing the relationship between Tehran and Tel Aviv, it will largely affect the outcome of the talks.
