What are the top cyber powers in the Middle East?
China’s recent cyber agreements with Iran may force other countries in the region to cooperate with the United States. China and Russia, as the main supporters of Iran’s cyber capabilities, can turn the country into a cybersecurity giant in the region.
How much is the recent escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict affecting regional cooperation in cybersecurity? Regional tensions will have no effect on regional cyber cooperation. Cyber cooperation in the region between two powerful governments in this field – beyond Iran – the UAE and Israel, was one of the drivers of the Abraham Agreement and this cooperation will not be left out. However, Hamas’ advantageous position in the recent tensions is likely to reduce Palestinian support for its approach to cooperating with Israel on cybersecurity. Given Egypt’s dual role in curbing and providing a diplomatic channel to Hamas, Egyptian-Israeli cyber cooperation may be attractive.
How do China and Russia shape the outlook for cyber conflicts in the Middle East?
Russia’s support for the Assad regime is likely to be accompanied by increased surveillance and its cyber defense regime. The investment of Chinese companies in the field of artificial intelligence in the Persian Gulf and the sale of drones by them to the Persian Gulf countries is also significant. Given the broad approaches of Russia and China, the growing technology, and their cyber interest in the Middle East, authoritarian cybersecurity and cyber espionage are expected to be strengthened, especially in the energy sector in the region.
China’s recent cyber agreements with Iran may also force other countries in the region to cooperate with the United States. China and Russia, as the main supporters of Iran’s cyber capabilities, can turn the country into a cybersecurity giant in the region.
What level of involvement should the United States have in the cyber tensions that are set to occur in the Middle East?
The United States is interested in working with governments in cyberspace to secure energy flows and international trade. In this way, it must share its expertise in cyber defense with its partners in the region.
On the other hand, US cyber-intervention in the region could provoke reactions from Iran in relation to Israel and the United States. After the Stuxnet attack, Iran has developed considerable cyber capabilities.
The United States should not be directly involved in a cyberwar in the region and can continue its current level of involvement in cyber defense, intelligence sharing, and research and development.
Which non-governmental actors have the greatest impact on cybersecurity in the Middle East? What about the next five years?
Facebook and Instagram are the most influential because of their role in creating content, and this trend is expected to continue in the next five years. Regulatory software companies such as the NSO Group remain significant to regional governments. The role of the Islamic State and the Muslim Brotherhood in financing and organizing their activities through cyberspace is not negligible, although this role is declining due to the empowerment of countries in the region. Apart from Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, it can be said that ISIL has been the most influential non-governmental cyber actor in the Middle East. This group used social media a lot to achieve its goals.
Some of the most influential non-governmental actors in the Middle East are access-as-a-service companies that sell spyware and other surveillance capabilities to governments. They are becoming major players in cyber warfare in the region. Hezbollah is on the rise and could become the most influential player in the field if it continues.
Which regional powers in the Middle East have gone beyond their capabilities in cybersecurity?
When it comes to defense technology and cyber power in the region, Israel is the most advanced. The countries of the Persian Gulf have also seen significant progress. Egypt and most North African countries are also developing their cyber capabilities. Cyber power tends to converge with the power of a country’s military. The regional military powers, Israel, Iran, and Turkey, are also regional cyber powers. As such, their cyber capabilities do not appear to go far beyond their military capabilities.
