The fall of the dominoes of the provincial capitals of Afghanistan by the Taliban, not with heavy weapons, fighters and helicopters, but with individual light weapons, once again stunned the world, but what are the real reasons for these collapses and where do they come from? ; Betrayal, conspiracy or weakness?
Regarding the current crisis in Afghanistan, it is first necessary to point out the ambiguities in the current process, from the Doha talks between the Taliban and the Americans to the claims about the social origins and acceptance of the Taliban in the northern regions; A group that may have entered Kabul at the time of writing and took full power.
Ambiguity in the file
To examine one of the most important ambiguities in the Afghanistan case and its current developments, we must go back to two or three years ago, when US government envoy Zalmai Khalilzad and a delegation led by Donald Trump began talks with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar.
The point that was hidden in the news and reports in those days and nobody paid attention to it was that the Afghan government was absent from the negotiations. In fact, Trump did not consider the Afghan government incapable of participating in the Doha peace process.
The nature of those negotiations can be likened to a transaction in which the seller was not present in the bargaining process from the beginning, and finally the transaction was signed between the intermediary and the buyer. Even after that, the situation did not change with Biden coming to power, only the new head of the White House surprised the Afghans.
One of the things that was emphasized during the Doha talks was the division of power in Afghanistan and giving a share of it to the Taliban, but behind the scenes of the talks, the Taliban had demanded all the power together and now, after about two years From those negotiations, it is on the verge of gaining all power in this country.
Not only was the Afghan government not present during the talks, it was not even aware of the agreements reached, and it is unlikely that the original documents and agreements between the two sides were transferred to the central government in Kabul. What other reason could the Afghan government and army be surprised by the hasty and hasty withdrawal of the Americans?
Wonders of the crisis
One of the wonders of Afghanistan in the current crisis is that the realities of the human geography of the regions do not match the current events; For example, in the areas where there is the most opposition to the Taliban, there is basically no resistance.
The northern regions, including the Tajik, Uzbek and Turkmen regions of Afghanistan, are falling easily, even before the eastern and southern Pashtun regions, and the inaction of prominent jihadi commanders who once experienced surprise from the Taliban surprises everyone.
It was as if the people’s forces that were talking about their mobilization melted and fell to the ground, and there was no news of all the trained female soldiers posing in front of the cameras of the documentarians, and the provincial centers one by one and in the shortest time, ie in It was out of government control for a week; Kandahar, Herat, Balkh, etc., and the forts that collapsed one by one with the least resistance, in a situation where the inhabitants of these areas, based on the experience of two decades ago, have sufficient knowledge of the intellectual nature of the invaders.
The origin of the Taliban, and incidentally its Pakistani branch, which is widely involved in the ongoing fighting, is the Pashtun areas, while the first strongholds of the resistance fell outside the Pashtun area.
Why did the Afghan army collapse so easily?
According to the estimates of Western governments and American generals, who were the founders of the Afghan army in the early years of the twentieth century, in the worst case, these forces would have to resist for up to six months without foreign aid, and in the worst case, three months. .
At least $ 88 billion has been spent on the Afghan army, according to US officials. There is no denying the training of these forces with American and NATO trainers, nor the fighting spirit and courage of the Afghans, so what is the reason for this rapid collapse?
Now the most important question at a time when Kabul is witnessing the entry of Taliban columns into the city is why the Afghan army was surprised?
A review of the events of June 2014 and the collapse of the Iraqi army by ISIS and the fall of Mosul reveals some similarities between the two crises, seven years apart.
The betrayal of the commanders and the support of the local officials was one of the main reasons for the collapse of the largest Iraqi divisions in the north of the country. Of course, some soldiers also joined ISIS due to ideological interests and joined the group.
But in the meantime, the role of the United States in this collapse cannot be ignored. The Americans did the same thing in Iraq in a different way. Regarding Afghanistan, they had a secret agreement with the Taliban in Doha, the details of which are not available. But this is part of the story, because the irresponsible withdrawal of the US military from Afghanistan is also a matter for consideration.
Imagine Afghan commanders waking up in the morning and suddenly being informed that the Americans had evacuated the Bagram base at night. Or the Afghan military has been watching the rapid withdrawal of Americans from their country for about two months now, as the Taliban are rapidly advancing into the cities and at the political level all decision-making bodies have been subjected to a kind of numbness like snake bites. .
If we look closely at the Taliban offensive as the Americans rush out, there is a psychological war going on at the heart of the Afghan army, as the Americans have not yet handed over security files to the Afghan government and armed forces.
Aren’t these events shocking for the affiliated army, which has not yet practiced and experienced independence and has not directly decided and acted on security cases?
In addition to all this, the Americans, according to their commitments to the Afghan government, had to stop the withdrawal operation to help the Afghan army as soon as the Taliban launched a lightning strike, because in any form of agreement, these attacks should violate the contract. Has been concluded. But despite these attacks, the Americans accelerated their withdrawal.
The current data set on the current developments in Afghanistan emphasizes that weakness and internal conspiracy can not be considered the main cause of the early collapse of the Afghan army and the government of Ashraf Ghani, and the decisive role of the Americans can not be ignored. The Americans also fired on the Afghan government and government in the past week, giving the green light and paving the way for the Taliban to enter Kabul, when they asked the Taliban for an opportunity for their diplomats to leave Kabul.
It is likely that in the next few hours, the world media will cover the fall of Kabul and the end of the Afghan government, and the Americans will withdraw their troops and diplomats safely, but the world will not forget that the Americans The people of Afghanistan have been plunged into a great vortex and a complex security crisis, so Washington is responsible for all possible incidents, disasters and catastrophes.
