An armed insurgency expert has warned of armed insurgency in the United States if police reform is not implemented quickly and justice is not served.
“Given his years of experience in studying armed insurgency around the world, the United States believes that the United States believes in the United States is potentially on the brink of disaster.
Armed insurgency for the next 5 years
Referring to recent events such as the deadly shooting of Brionna Taylor, the tragic death of George Floyd, and the deadly shooting of Dante Wright, he cited examples of the deplorable social and political conditions of black Americans and wrote: In the United States, the current situation may lead to an armed insurgency in the next five years, and we are likely to see the formation of armed anti-police groups.
The similarity of the American armed uprising with other parts of the world
Examining the spread of the Zapatista movement in Mexico or the military movement of the Niger Delta in Nigeria, he believes that similar armed uprisings will take place in the United States. Initially, the various groups that have gradually formed will form weak coalitions without centralized leadership. This decentralized power structure now exists in social justice movements such as Antifa.
Injustice against blacks The main cause of armed riots against the police
Oriola points to the fact that there can be no single direct factor as the root of these events. Rather, the various socio-political and economic factors must be combined simultaneously to identify the roots of the formation of organized movements.
He points to the French government’s atrocities in France, which, along with strong sentiments about current injustices and repeated reminders of police brutality, provide ample explanation for the situation until it reaches the point of armed conflict.
“Deep wounds in the form of police killings or other atrocities, along with a poor health system for blacks in areas like Covid-19 or a low survival rate from cancer, add more fuel to the fire,” Oriola said. This poor health care system has exacerbated the deplorable high unemployment rate among blacks, who have always faced economic challenges throughout US history.
Sabotage riots against police
Oriola goes on to point out the incomparably high rate of incarceration among blacks, which could be a reason for possible riots. A number of studies show that 8% of the US population has a criminal record, but this rate is rising to 33% among blacks in the United States. He adds: “Any anti-police movement in the United States is likely to be in the form of subversive urban riots.” He believes the attacks will be irregular at first, and will likely use small arms and upgraded explosive devices, and will mainly target targets that symbolize law enforcement.
Predictions that came true
These predictions came true to some extent in the summer of 2020 following the assassination of George Floyd. In those riots, we saw the formation of a large number of autonomous regions in cities such as New York, Seattle, and Portland in the first months of the uprising. But this fact was ignored in the media coverage, especially of the “Black Lives Matter” marches.
Everyone will lose control of the situation
To show the depth of the tragedy, Oriola reveals the fact that the United States has the highest rate of armed civilians in the world, at 120.5 per 100 guns, or a total of more than 393 million guns. The worry is that as conditions worsen and armed movements become more widespread, black leaders will not be able to prevent an escalation of violence.
The expert on armed insurgency warns in the end that in the current situation the hypothesis of insurgency is inevitable and in fact, it can be prevented only by making complete reforms in the police force and the judiciary.
