Riyadh Distances From The USA, From Oil Blockage To Agreement With Iran.
Today (Monday, July 10), in a note focusing on the growing process of convergence between Saudi Arabia and Iran and Riyadh’s disregard for America’s wishes, he wrote: This issue supports the hypothesis that the crisis in relations between Riyadh and Washington is temporary and that it will take time to resolve it. which Americans repeatedly try to instill.
Oil divorce between Riyadh and Washington
The author then raises this question: Did Saudi Arabia and the United States, the oil divorce, happen? The oil policy of Saudi Arabia in the last two years proves that this country has made a major change in its policy because this policy is based on securing the interests of the Saudi regime, which is no longer in line with the interests of the United States.
In this regard, Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi oil minister, announced a few days ago: “The days of the 1980s, when the kingdom played the role of the main [oil] producer, are over.” These frank statements show the divorce of the Saudi oil broker from the United States.
This fact is also clearly evident in Saudi Arabia’s considerable insistence on coordination with Russia in “OPEC Plus” regarding the reduction of oil production. This problem showed itself completely in two different times. The first was in October 2022, when Saudi Arabia surprised all OPEC+ members, including Russia, by pressuring them all to simultaneously cut production by two million barrels, twice as much as they had previously agreed to, regardless of American outcry. Moscow had requested.
Second, at the end of last June, when Riyadh announced a unilateral voluntary cut of one million barrels and pressured Moscow to cut another half a million barrels of OPEC+ production, despite seeking to show coherence in It was inside this organization. Several reports were published regarding the Russians’ dissatisfaction with this reduction in production, and Saudi Arabia also unofficially announced that Moscow had exceeded the agreed production quota.
The author further explained: The Russians have their own calculations in this regard, which are based on the fact that the price increase as a result of the reduction does not compensate Moscow for the money lost through the loss of sales of the reduced amount. Especially since there are other producers to compensate for this reduction in oil production which can steal away Russian customers. But in the end, Riyadh announced the continuation of the coordination policy with Moscow to control the oil market.
The agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia under the supervision of Beijing
In the continuation of this note, it is stated: Oil, despite its great importance, is not the only area in which Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman disobeys the orders of the United States. Recently, the signs of this issue have increased. Bin Salman is steadily and rapidly moving towards establishing government rules beyond the security needs of the Americans and has taken consistent steps in this direction, the most important of which is the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran under the supervision of Beijing. To the extent that one of the results of this is the emergence of the Saudi-Iranian dual authority as an alternative authority to the American authority in regional affairs.
Progress in Solving the Yemen Crisis
Regarding Yemen, where they consider the success or failure of the Saudi-Iranian agreement to be very important, it should be said that the information indicates that despite the efforts of the United States and the UAE to obstruct, everything is progressing. Even in the issue of salaries, this applies and it was agreed to pay a part of it. What delays the resolution of the Yemen crisis is the complex plan of the presence of different groups in Yemen and the diversity of these groups’ dependence on foreign parties. However, in general, it can be said that there is a glimmer of hope, which is the positive atmosphere of negotiations between “Ansarullah” and the Saudi authorities and the clear intentions and interests of both sides to move towards a solution.
To prove this claim, the author pointed to the continued presence of a high-ranking delegation from Sana’a in Saudi Arabia, which had gone to Mecca to perform Hajj rituals, and wrote: “This delegation will stay in Saudi Arabia for eight months for further negotiations away from the eyes of the media.” He extended it another day and returned to Sana’a just yesterday without disclosing the results and details of the negotiations.
Riyadh does not want to create problems with Tehran
The author further pointed to the dispute between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait over the issue of the Arash gas field, which the Arab countries refer to as “Al-Dura” and wrote: the re-emergence of the issue of the Al-Dura (Arash) gas field between Iran on the one hand and Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, also showed that despite the fact that Saudi Arabia is in line with Kuwait regarding the need to negotiate with Iran over maritime borders, it does not want to create a problem with Tehran and wants to work with Iran as one of the negotiating parties in this matter. Especially to talk.
The dispute between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia Iran over the Arash gas field has a long history, and now with Iran’s emphasis on the need to resolve this dispute in order to exploit it and drill there, the media disputes between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia with Iran have increased.
In the continuation of this note, it is stated: “This stance of Saudi Arabia was accompanied by severe criticism from a part of the Saudi opposition living in the West, and they blamed Riyadh for not immediately asking Tehran to immediately stop drilling in this field. However, the public taste of Saudi Arabia is clearly towards Riyadh’s policy in advancing the process of convergence with Iran and in line with the desire of the people of the region to improve relations between their countries, especially since many of the problems created between Riyadh and Tehran were created and dealt with by America. On the other hand, Americans are not very popular among the Saudi public. The most important proof of this claim is the non-acceptance of Israel by the Saudis, despite all the efforts of America and Israel.
It is tempting to make proposals to Riyadh to normalize relations.
Washington’s hand on the chest regarding normalization with Tel Aviv
This is despite the fact that until a few years ago, it seemed that only time was the issue in the path of normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, and the actions of Saudi Arabia in this regard, including allowing Israeli commercial planes to fly over Saudi airspace, prove this. was doing But it seems that Riyadh has returned to the state before those developments and considers any possible normalization with Tel Aviv dependent on reaching a solution to the Palestinian issue based on a two-state solution. In this regard, the Saudi system should pay attention to the taste and desires of its people as well as the requirements of the regional situation.
In conclusion, the author emphasizes: the new foreign policy of the Saudi system is guided by one thing, and that is the interests of this system. Even if there is a possibility that it will return to an alliance with Washington in the future, as a result of a fundamental change in American policy. This return will be in different conditions and America can no longer dictate its will to Riyadh and expect it to be implemented.
