The logic of Riyadh’s changing policies towards Baghdad

Last week, on June 8, 2021, a delegation of Iraqi and Saudi ministers and officials in a video conference discussed ways to develop bilateral relations, especially in the fields of energy, petrochemicals, and investment in gas extraction and clean energy production. In order to expedite the implementation of the memorandums signed between the two countries, they reviewed. During the Iraqi Prime Minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia last April (two months ago), the two countries discussed the establishment of a joint fund between Iraq and Saudi Arabia with an approximate capital of $ 3 billion to help Saudi Arabia boost economic investment and cooperation in the energy sector. Renewable energy and the activation and acceleration of the joint project under the auspices of the Saudi-Iraqi Coordination Council agreed.

The completion of the electricity connection project between the two countries and the strengthening of coordination in supporting and strengthening the investment opportunities of Saudi companies and inviting them to expand their activities in Iraq and in various fields, as well as expanding efforts to rebuild Iraq were other understandings reached during this trip. The expansion of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq is a mutual desire between these countries. The author intends to analyze the tendency of these two countries towards each other in two separate notes. This memo examines Saudi Arabia’s inclination toward Iraq.

In fact, after holding several parliamentary elections in Iraq, Saudi Arabia realized that it could not directly and politically affect the situation in Iraq.

Because according to the Iraqi constitution, the structure of government in this country is such that the political posts of the government and the cabinet are divided between different parties and groups according to the number of their representatives, and according to the majority of the Shiite population in this country, the current prime minister Has executive power in the executive branch. Shiites are the head of the Kurdish republic and the speaker of the Sunni parliament. Thus, Saudi Arabia, especially after the geopolitical defeat of ISIS, is aware of Iraq’s position in the power equations in the region, seeking to increase its role and influence not only politically, but in other ways in this country. . In following, Saudi Arabia’s efforts for this purpose in various fields will be discussed.

Economic sphere: Saudi Arabia has made great efforts to penetrate the economic sphere and rebuild Iraq. For example, so far, the Joint Coordination Council between Iraq and Saudi Arabia has drawn up a number of agreements, such as the expansion of airlines and the launch of maritime transport, the implementation of an investment agreement on one million hectares of Iraqi land to turn it into agricultural and livestock land, and so on. Also, various delegations of Saudi and Iraqi businessmen and businessmen travel to each other’s countries, and in this regard, several meetings are held in Iraq.

Saudi Arabia seeks to make Iraq more and more dependent on Iran, especially in the economic sphere. One of the areas that made Iraq dependent on Iran was the export of electricity to Iraq. Saudi Arabia is trying to export Iraqi oil to the country with investments in this field. This effort has gone so far that Saudi Arabia has offered Iraq free electricity.

Security: In order to ensure the security of the country and its borders, especially in the face of paramilitary forces close to Iran and the remnants of ISIS, Saudi Arabia is trying to increase its relations beyond the level of political and economic relations to the level of security relations. Saudi Arabia feels threatened by these two forces. For example, in April 2019, Saudi Arabia thwarted a terrorist attack on a study center affiliated with the Saudi Security Agency in the city of Zulfi, north of Riyadh, which the ISIS terrorist group claimed responsibility for in a statement.

Saudi officials also considered air operations against Saudi oil facilities to be through Iraqi territory or through Iraqi territory. However, this claim was completely denied by the Iraqi authorities. However, establishing security relations to address common security concerns, especially in the desert areas of Iraq and the western cities of Anbar province towards the provinces of Ninawa and Salah al-Din, which are located along the border with Jordan and Saudi Arabia, is something that officials in both countries are concerned about. . On April 18, 2019, then-Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammad Ali al-Hakim spoke of an agreement between the two countries to sign a security and intelligence cooperation agreement. To this end, security officials from Iraq and Saudi Arabia are holding meetings to discuss security cooperation to address common threats.

In conclusion, it should be said; It seems that Saudi Arabia is well aware that advancing Saudi cooperation with Iraq in the economic, security, cultural, religious, and social spheres is like “moving the horses that, when they start, will inevitably follow the chariot, that is, politics.” “He pulled.” In fact, in order to circumvent the Iraqi constitution, Saudi Arabia considers the foundation and foundation of any cooperation in the difficult security-political spheres to be the establishment of Saudi relations and influence in the soft spheres in Iraq.

Therefore, in general, Saudi Arabia seeks to expand its relations with Iraq in order to weaken Iran’s influence in Iraq, or at least to strike a balance with Iran in that country. In this way, the US desire to strengthen Iraqi-Saudi relations in order to reduce Iran’s influence in this country and the region can be compared to lubricating the chains of Iraqi politics.