What will be the fate of the Wagner Group without Prigozhin?
Wagner’s group operated undercover for several years, but in 2022 it registered as a company in St. Petersburg and began its official operations, and since then has openly recruited large numbers of troops to participate in the Ukrainian war. The implementation of military-economic goals in other parts of the world, including Africa and the Middle East, is also recorded in the record of this group.
This group, which according to Prigozhin has more than 25 thousand militiamen, has played a role as a militia group in Ukraine, Sudan, Libya, Mali, and some countries in the Middle East, West Africa, and Central Africa.
But Prigozhin, the commander and founder of Wagner, rebelled against Moscow in July this year. In an action known as the “March of Justice”, he ordered his forces to advance toward Moscow, which ended with the mediation of Belarus.
It was about two months after this incident that Prigozhin’s plane crashed on August 23 in the “Tor” region of Russia in the northwest of Moscow, and he and nine other people lost their lives in this incident. After Prigogine’s death, speculation has increased about the future of the group that played a key role in Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, as well as contributing to Russia’s influence in various parts of the world.
Who will inherit the Wagner Group?
According to media reports, in the crash of the plane carrying Prigozhin, not only he lost his life, but also some key people of the Wagner Group, such as “Dmitry Otkin”, one of Prigozhin’s closest allies, former GRU officers and commanders of the Wagner Group to protect the Syrian oil fields and from The organizers of the march towards Moscow were also killed in this accident.
Valery Chekalov, who played a key role in Wagner’s financial affairs, was also killed in this incident. In addition, two important people Wagner, four bodyguards, and the flight crew also lost their lives in the accident.
Reports from Russian social media channels linked to Wagner suggest that some other key members of Wagner were also on the flight.
Due to the fact that the key commanders of this group have been killed, many observers and media have speculated that this group will witness extensive changes in its high levels and command.
In response to this question, Dr. Joana de Deus Pereira, senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the media that Prigogine’s death would lead to a “definite renewal” of the group under his command. But at the same time, Wagner’s operation will probably continue in the same way as it did under Prigogine’s command. According to him, “This organization will probably remain under a different name in the future, but it has already proven that it has the capacity to adapt and form.”
Ruslan Trad, a security analyst at the Atlantic Council, also agreed that Prigozhin’s death would likely lead to someone connected to Russia’s military intelligence service replacing him as the group’s commander, but finding a new financier that would be good for Russia. No problem, may be a little difficult. In any case, Wagner had professional commanders, but money was the main element of action in this group.
He raised the suspicion that Wagner’s experience for Russia would end with the conclusion that if Wagner survived, the new commander would work with more considerations from the Kremlin.
