The ambiguous fate of the coup in Sudan; The end of conflicts or the continuation of tensions?
On the 15th of April 2023, armed clashes between the Sudanese army and the rapid support forces broke out in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, and other cities of this country. Both sides used heavy military weapons in these conflicts, the Sudanese army has announced that it will continue fighting until the dissolution of the Rapid Support Forces, on the other hand, the Rapid Support Forces have announced that they will continue the war until they have full control over the army.
The leaders of the two sides supported each other before these events, but they disagreed on the issue of signing the final framework agreement with the Central Council of Freedom and Change Movements. This is despite the fact that on the fifth day of December 2022, in the negotiations held with the participation of the United States, England, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, under the supervision of the United Nations and the African Union, they had reached a preliminary understanding about the signing of the framework agreement. Mohammad Hamdan Deghlo nicknamed Hamidati, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces of Sudan, agrees with the signing of the final framework agreement, but the commander of the Sudanese army, Abdul Fattah al-Barhan, considers the signing of this agreement dependent on the integration of the Rapid Support Forces into the Sudanese army and has so far refused to sign the framework agreement. Is.
The question that arises is, what are the changes that the framework agreement will make on the balance of power between the two sides? What are the developments that led to these events? And what will be the possible scenarios for this military confrontation?
Where did the tensions start?
The framework agreement emphasizes that the armed forces of Sudan will be under the command of the head of the civilian government during the transition of power. Accordingly, the prime minister of Sudan will head the security and defense council, which is formed with the presence of related committees. Also, a military figure will not be at the head of the Ministry of Defense. In fact, based on this agreement, General Al-Barhan, as the commander of the Sudanese army, will lose the presidency of the Sudanese governing council and will lose the power to exercise sovereignty over the rapid support forces that he was the deputy of. They will operate independently. This independence of forces also includes the Sudanese army and the rapid support forces, and based on this agreement, the rapid support forces will no longer be under the command of the Sudanese army. In addition, the framework agreement prohibits the Sudanese army from carrying out any commercial activities and only makes an exception in the field of defense industry for the activities of the army. On the other hand, the framework agreement did not set any timetable for the integration of rapid support forces in the Sudanese army and did not prohibit the activities of these forces in the field of gold mining and trade.
