One Year Of Conflict: The Lessons Learned In Ukrainian War.
The war in Ukraine has entered its first year, and there is no prospect of ending it, and the intensity of Russian operations is intensifying day by day, and the Western countries are increasing the aid of weapons to Ukraine.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has shown its negative consequences at different levels around the world since the first weeks, the most prominent of which was the food crisis in various countries, including the Middle East. Russia and Ukraine supply more than a third of the world’s wheat, and many countries in the Middle East buy half of their wheat from these two countries.
Governments, businesses and families around the world are feeling the economic effects of war two years after the coronavirus pandemic disrupted global trade. Inflation started to rise and European countries were on the verge of economic recession.
The global economy was under pressure even before Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. Inflation had peaked and the recession caused by the Corona epidemic had paralyzed factories, ports and loading, causing delays, shortages and higher prices. In response to this situation, central banks turned to increasing interest rates in order to reduce economic growth and curb price increases.
But the war in Ukraine, on the other hand, exposed the signs of the change of the world order to the center of America more than ever. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US military, admitted a while ago in a meeting with the military that “if the situation of the war in Ukraine continues in this way, the world order that we have created in the last 78 years will collapse.” This speech speaks well of the importance of the Ukrainian battle and its consequences.
Angela Stitt, a specialist in international relations in the field of Russia, who was born in London and has a history of working in the US State Department, believes that “when the spheres of influence of great powers are accepted, it helps to prevent war, but in Ukraine, the United States changed and the world order of the post-Cold War era is now over.”
In the same way, Michael Duclos, a French special advisor in the field of geopolitics, believes that “during the war in Ukraine, the developing countries will be separated from the current order and will have close relations with China and Russia.” He considers the countries of the global south to be angry with the West and willing to challenge the world order. (Southern countries are countries other than America and Europe).
One of the important signs of Michael Duclos’s analysis is that America has not yet been able to force its allies in the West Asian region to take a position in the Ukraine war. One of the obvious examples of this issue is that in an international exhibition of military equipment in Dubai, military officials and defense companies from different countries including Russia, Ukraine, America and China are present.
Russia has participated in this exhibition before, but its presence this year more than anything indicates the UAE’s unwillingness to align with its ally America in the Ukraine war, and of course, the UAE’s behavior is a model of the general behavior of countries in this region.
Christian Ulrichsen, a political science researcher at the Baker Institute at Rice University in America, told CNN: “Since the start of the war a year ago, it has become clear that America’s regional partners in the Middle East intend to leave neutrality and align with one side or engage in They don’t have the competition of great powers.
It is also worth noting that the UAE refused to sign a resolution condemning Russia some time ago. Shortly after voting in favor of that resolution, Egypt released a statement confirming Russia’s legitimate security concerns and condemning the sanctions against the country. These indicate the movement towards changing the world order.
In parallel with this prospect for changing the world order, the American sanctions system has been exposed to serious questions. The United States, the European Union and some other Western countries have introduced a series of sanctions against the Russian economy and financial institutions since the beginning of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.
Unlike the targeted sanctions that were used against Russia in the past years, this time the sanctions had a wide scope. The SWIFT embargo against some Russian banks and the ban on the import of Russian oil by the United Kingdom and the United States were the most severe measures used against Russia.
