Saudi Arabia prefers Pakistan or Indonesia to normalize relations with Israel first.
The question for Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is not which countries recognize Israel, but when and who will go first.
For the past two years, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been waiting for a Muslim country in Asia (which includes three countries with a large Muslim majority) to first recognize Israel, as Asian recognition will give Riyadh significant coverage over the two holy cities of Mecca. And Medina is dominated by Muslims.
Compared to the 35 million population of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has a population of 221 million, Indonesia 274 million and Bangladesh 165 million, the majority of whom are Muslims.
This was one of the reasons why the kingdom was waiting to follow the example of one of these countries, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, which recognized Israel.
The kingdom expects widespread protests in these countries against the normalization of Saudi Arabia with Israel, as these countries have a wider margin of opposition than most parts of the Middle East.
Such protests were believed to prevent Saudi Arabia from moving towards normalization. Although Saudi Arabia has shown that Israel is a “potential ally” and has opened the door to normalization, it needs coverage to do so.
However, the possible visit of US President Joe Biden may contain important news about Saudi Arabia’s normalization plans with Israel.
The trip is aimed at improving strained relations since Biden’s rise to power over Saudi Arabia’s skepticism about US security commitments to the kingdom, as well as Washington urging Riyadh to increase oil production to reduce prices and limit Russia’s energy export revenue and cooperation. Saudi Arabia and China are in the case of the missile and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashgeji in 2018
Prior to the trip, he and Saudi Arabia did not reject a US offer for a regional air defense system in the Middle East that includes the Kingdom and Israel.
But Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is unlikely to see Biden’s trip as a justification for recognizing Israel.
Most likely, he will continue to insist on the “fig leaf” in the form of progress in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the progress of a large Asian country with a Muslim majority.
