Opportunities, challenges and post-election scenarios in Iraq.
In the light of numerous speculations and investments of foreign actors such as the United States on diverting the path of peaceful protests to the announced election results; It is expected that the various political groups, once contained the existing tensions, will once again form a government agreed upon by all Shiite political groups.
Guest notes; Mohammad Reza Farhadi: The Iraqi parliamentary elections were held on October 9, 2010 with the participation of 41% of the people. This election was significantly different from the previous elections, both in terms of constituencies and the presence of votes. Unlike the previous elections, this time the number of constituencies had reached 83, and the method of selecting individuals was direct, and depending on the population, between 3 and 5 seats were allocated to each province. Of Iraq’s 40 million people, 25 million were eligible to vote, 22 million were registered to vote, and some 9,77,000 went to the polls to elect 329 members of parliament. The elections of this period were held in two rounds; One was on Friday for security forces and election officials, and the second was on Sunday with the participation of the general public.
Election results
Although the results of the Iraqi elections have been officially announced and approved by the Independent Election Commission (IEC), partisan protests, along with popular protests over election fraud, have prevented the IEC from announcing the final results and making it changeable. To know. However, the distribution of most of the parliamentary seats according to the results of the current announcement is as follows:
Sadr faction led by Muqtada al-Sadr: 73 seats
Independents: 40 seats
The precedent coalition led by “Mohammad Al-Halbousi”: 38 seats
Coalition of the State of Law headed by Nouri Al-Maliki: 35 seats
Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani: 33 seats
Al-Fatah Coalition headed by Hadi Al-Amiri: 16 seats
Inauguration of Kurdistan (result of the alliance of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Party and the Movement for Change (Goran)): 16 seats
Determined Coalition led by Khamis al-Khanjar: 12 seats
A movement led by Alaa al-Rakabi arising from the October 2020 demonstrations known as the “Tashriniyah”: 9 seats
New Jail Movement led by “Shaswar Abdul Wahed”: 9 seats
Illumination of the center: 6 seats
Patriotic Union Coalition headed by “Faleh Al-Fayadh”: 5 seats
Strong inauguration of the state (current of national wisdom led by “Ammar al-Hakim” + Al-Nasr coalition led by “Haidar al-Abadi”): 5 seats
Christians – Kota: 5 seats
“Adoption of decision” chaired by “Amer Al-Fayez”: 4 seats
Other seats are distributed among other coalitions and political parties running in the elections.
Rigging
What is now being discussed in Iraq as fraud has led to popular protests and some political currents discussing fraud systematically. Because according to the available information, the election software was from Germany and its server was based in the UAE. Deploying software and servers outside of Iraq has led many to argue that election fraud has been widespread. On the other hand, some currents consider the presence of UN observers as the main cause of election fraud. Because these observers, who numbered about 300 people, indirectly influenced the election results by supporting certain currents and individuals. But what is clear now is that, given the deployment of election servers in the UAE, it is likely that there has been a lot of manipulation and change in the outcome of the election, and this change will result in more votes for US-affiliated parties and less It has been the votes of the resistance currents.
Opportunities
Regardless of the announced results, this election had opportunities from several perspectives, some of which are as follows:
1- There was a security stability in this election, which was provided by the Iraqi security forces, especially Al-Hashdal Shaabi. The repulse of terrorist threats by ISIS cells in some parts of Iraq in the days before the election by al-Hashdal al-Shaabi was a clear manifestation of the security created by Iraqi security forces without the presence of foreign countries.
2- There was a special cohesion between the resistance groups compared to the previous periods. Most resistance groups participated in the elections within the framework of the “Coordination of Shiite Political Forces” (Attar al-Tansiqi). Although some groups participated in the elections separately and outside the coalition, this was done for a specific purpose and to gain more votes in some parts of Iraq.
3- In this election, the experience of real democracy took place with the current process of electing individuals, contrary to the previous procedures, which were in the form of lists. In this election, people were elected directly and not as a list, and this factor has been in order to directly influence the people in the affairs of the country.
4- The election results revealed two important and undeniable facts; First; Non-voting of US-affiliated candidates and second; Failure to achieve the desired result by currents such as sweets. Prior to the election, there was a lot of publicity about the fact that the American and Syrian currents in Iraq weigh a lot, and the election results will be in favor of these two currents. But in practice it was observed that this did not happen and the weight of these currents is not very significant.
Challenges
The current Iraqi elections may be challenging for the future in several ways:
1- The most important challenge in the discussion is the election of the Prime Minister and the formation of the future government of Iraq. Given that neither party has won a majority, it is likely that the process of forming a government in Iraq and forming a larger faction will undergo a complex process, leading to the involvement of other countries, such as the United States, in appointing a prime minister. . This is something we have seen in previous periods.
2- Identifying sweets. Although the Tashrini movement did not achieve a favorable result in the elections, it did not have any current identity before the current elections and was more present in a cross-sectional manner and simultaneously with the protests. But now, with nine parliamentary seats, it has gained an identity and existence. Known as the Protestant Movement or Jokerism in Iraq, it is often attended by people organized by civil society organizations or non-governmental organizations affiliated with the CIA, and in most cases does not believe in peaceful protests and is most oriented. It also has resistance groups. One of the most important challenges that this movement may create in this field is to create a challenge in order to approve some anti-resistance plans in the parliament with the cooperation of some other political parties and currents. However, with the number of votes announced, this process does not have much chance to advance its goals.
3- Shiite-Shiite war. Given the protests of some resistance movements and the people against the election results, as well as the internal stances of some party leaders, there is concern that the escalation of these protests could lead to a Shiite-Shiite war. This is a strategy that the United States has been pursuing for the past three years with the spark of popular protests in Iraq, and considers the current time to be the best time to implement it. On the other hand, some stances have been taken by the political leaders of the Shiite currents, and this may become a challenge in the future to intensify the political atmosphere in Iraq. Recently, in protest of the election results, Nouri al-Maliki announced that the IEC would take the issue seriously and accurately and investigate violations of the constitution and the law, away from any shortcomings or inclinations of one of the rival parties. Muqtada al-Sadr reacted to this stance, saying, “I heard al-Maliki’s remarks about the election process, and I can say that I was surprised by these remarks, but we must say that these remarks are incomplete. He must make up for what he has lost, and my advice to him is not to make up for what he has lost by clinging to power; “Because he has been tested and failed, and the one who has been tested will not be tested again.”
The popular protests, along with the intensification of the protests of political leaders from the American point of view, are a good time to catch fish from the muddy waters of Iraq, in order to bring their Shiite-Shiite war project to the fore.
4- Widespread participation. According to the announcement of the results, many parties are already seeking their share in the future of the Iraqi government. As the Sadr movement now wants other parties to adapt to this movement for the post of Prime Minister. Because from the point of view of the Sadr faction, the future prime minister must be a member of this faction, and this shows that the Sadr faction will not be willing to ally with other parties except by electing someone outside its faction. These contributions will certainly have an impact on the formation of a government in Iraq in the future, and will complicate the process of forming a government.
5- Reducing participation. The turnout in this election was lower than the Iraqi population, and this shows the dissatisfaction of the people in this election. The Iraqi people are dissatisfied with the officials in the three areas of services, unemployment and corruption, and many of their problems have not been solved yet. These problems, of course, are some infrastructural, and most of them stem from the presence of the occupiers in this country.
Scenarios
The election results have been largely determined and it is unlikely that popular and political protests will lead to a significant change in the announced votes. In the meantime, and based on the above results, several scenarios for the future of Iraq are envisaged:
1- Intensification of street protests: For this scenario, an intermediate situation can be considered: that is, on the one hand, some foreign actors such as the United States want such a scenario, and on the other hand, Shiite currents have come to believe that such a scenario was developed by the Americans. As a result, we can say that we will witness such protests for a while, and then the intensity of popular and political protests will decrease.
2- Forming a government as soon as possible: This scenario is unlikely to work due to the lack of a majority of votes by a particular party and the heterogeneity of Iraqi parties. Partisan divisions and widespread partisanship will prevent the formation of such a government.
3- Forming a larger faction with three possibilities: The process of forming a larger faction (Katl al-Akbar) after the elections in Iraq has always been time consuming and this process is likely to have a longer schedule in this election. This time, not only have some parties protested the election results and called for sanctions to form a government, but the coalition-building process is already facing challenges. Although some parties had secret alliances with each other before the election, the evidence shows that these currents are currently facing many problems. For this reason, there are three possibilities in the discussion of the formation of the Akbar mass:
The first possibility; Forming a larger faction centered on the Sadr movement and in alliance with the Kurds and Sunnis.
The second possibility; Forming a larger faction centered on al-Maliki’s two-state coalition in a coalition with Shiite and Sunni groups.
Third possibility; Forming a larger faction with a coalition between Sadr and al-Maliki, along with other Iraqi parties.
Given that the parties will have difficulty in the consensus-building process, they will eventually agree to form a government with the participation of all political parties and groups in order to reach a general consensus. That is, for the satisfaction of the parties, a government consisting of all currents will be formed.
